BUT DO BUYERS WANT TO PLUG IN TO BATTERIES?

+ Click to Enlarge AND THE SHOW GOES ON: Trade fair visitors and cars at the Mercedes-Benz stand during the 63rd International Motor Show (IAA) in the central German city of Frankfurt am Main on September 16, 2009. 781 auto and auto parts manufacturers from 30 countries are showing about 100 new models. Image: AFP

September 17, 2009
By Soyoung Kim and Helen Massy-Beresford

Major automakers right down to niche manufacturers are racing to get green cars on the road but one question lingers: after many false starts, are drivers ready for them?

They are showing off a plethora of green shoots at the Frankfurt auto show after emerging from a savage economic downturn and under increasing regulatory pressure to cut emissions.

As manufacturers struggle to guess the size of the green market the need for government support in the early days was a recurring refrain.

France's Renault, which unveiled four electric vehicle concepts at the show, forecast 10 percent of vehicles would be electric by 2020.

Chief executive Carlos Ghosn, who is also head of Nissan, said: "We think the potential is beyond that but it's going to depend not so much on the technology but on how willing governments are to push this technology."

He said automakers had little choice but to make the zero emissions shift, given the high probability that oil prices would rise, and emissions regulations would become tougher but the history of the industry's attempts to go green suggests that affordability is king.

Hybrids, led by Toyota's top-selling Prius, made up less than two percent of global sales in 2008, largely due to batteries adding nearly $5000 to the price of a conventional car. Electric vehicles are designed to run on battery power alone and are much more expensive than traditional hybrids, which twin battery power and an internal combustion engine.

Tesla Motors' flagship Roadster sports car goes 380km miles on a single battery charge from a conventional power outlet but sells for a base price of $109 000. The company is due to start production of its $49 000 Model S family sedan in late 2011 or 2012.

However chief executive Elon Musk told Reuters the company's third-generation car, which will benefit from greater volumes and technological refinements, could cost less than $30 000 and should be launched in about five years.

GM's heavily-touted Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid, designed to go only 60km on a charge, is expected to cost more than $40 000.

PSA Peugeot Citroen expects around one in 20 cars sold worldwide to be electric by 2020.

MANY TECHNOLOGIES IN HARMONY

While the industry shares the common goal of green technology automaker have come up with differing solutions ranging from full electric to efficient conventional engines, suggesting a standard solution is unlikely in the near term.

Guillaume Gerondeau, Toyota Motor Europe's director of product planning and marketing, said at the show: "In the next 10 years I see a European market with many technologies living together.

"It depends very much on the customer but it will depend also on government and local authority decisions in terms of taxation and regulation."

He believed Ghosn's estimate of one in 10 new cars in 2020 being electric was "very optimistic" given the challenge of cutting the cost of batteries.

PSA Peugeot Citroen's CEO Philippe Varin, referring to the electric vehicle segment, said: "We don't want to put all our eggs in one basket, especially when we don't know the size of the basket.

"We are not cautious, but balanced."

NO ONE REPLACEMENT FUEL

The French manufacturer unveiled its iOn electric car, based on partner Mitsubishi Motors' iMiev, and is also promoting hybrid technology.

Takehi Uchiyamada, Toyota's executive vice-president in charge of research and development, said: "There is no one fuel to replace petrol. Each automaker will have to identify which technology to which it will dedicate resources.

"There has to be a technological breakthrough for pure electric vehicles to penetrate the market. We think plug-in hybrid is superior than pure electric vehicles, more practical, more reasonably priced, and close to reality."- Reuters

Check out our special Frankfurt 2009 feature for many more stories and lots of images.