DIESELS GIVE HYBRIDS A RUN FOR THEIR MONEY

+ Click to Enlarge FLIGHT OF FANCY: Honda's 3R-C concept, on show at the 2010 Geneva auto show, is a one-person, battery-powered, inner-city shuttle.

March 4, 2010
By Sarah Arnott

Hybrids are the stars of the 2010 Geneva auto show but, behind all the big-hopes hype, it will be decades before petrol-electric vehicles are mainstream.

The Geneva auto show opened on Tuesday as if the recession was but a distant memory with a flurry of glitzy launches but overwhelmingly dominated by "green" technology.

Everybody who's anybody in the world of cars is showing hybrids - be they electric motors boosting a petrol engine, petrol engines extending the range of batteries, or any other combination.

It might seem as if mainstream electric motoring is just around the next bend, given the crop being showcased in Geneva. They range from jaw-dropping supercars by Ferrari and Porsche to the workhorse Toyota Auris, with offers, too, from BMW and Audi.

But, so far, hybrids occupy only the tiniest niche in the global car market and, for all the hype, there's is a long way to go. Very few hybrids are actually in showrooms - Toyota's Prius and Honda's Insight are examples - but the next year or two will see a whole range of new entrants... Toyota's Auris hybrid in 2010, the Nissan Leaf and the plug-in Prius in 2011 and the Opel Ampera from early 2012.

The UK government firmly supports battery cars. Last week transport secretary Lord Adonis confirmed that the government would refund 25 percent of the sale price, to a £5000 (R57 000) limit, for buyers of plug-in cars from the start of 2011.

And, in an effort to confront the chicken-and-egg issue of recharging infrastructure, the British government is putting up £30-million (about R340-million) to fund the installation of 11 000 recharge points in London, Milton Keynes and the north-east, with another round of "plugged-in places" to follow.

There are still plenty of potholes in the road ahead and the deepest is cost. Hybrid tech is fiendishly expensive, not least because of the cost and weight of the lithium-ion batteries. Automakers are working on new credit models to help potential customers, such as battery leasing schemes and monthly payment plans.

But, even with subsidies and clever financing, there is no getting away from high retail prices. VW's Touareg hybrid, for example, is expected to cost as much as £20 000 (about R225 000) more than its diesel equivalent yet the cheaper diesel may not be that much dirtier.

Diesels already give hybrids a run for their money on CO2 emissions: the current Prius produces 89g/km against 104g/km from the Ford Focus Diesel Econetic and 99g/km from VW's diesel Golf Bluemotion.

HYPE ABOUT HYBRIDS

And the particulate emissions that give diesel its bad environmental name are significantly curbed in the modern so-called "clean diesels" using particulate traps and ammonia injection technologies. There are already diesel cars on sale that meet Euro 6 particulate emissions targets that will not be enforced until 2014!

With all the hype about hybrids, however, automakers have no choice but to join the rush yet they don't necessarily believe it is the best way forward. German car giants, in particular, view hybrids as an expensive distraction from clean diesel.

Hilton Holloway, associate editor of Autocar magazine, said: "Clean diesel is good enough to meet the Californian regulations, which are right off the scale, but automakers all feel they have to build hybrids because of the overwhelming marketing push, particularly in the US."

Next-generation internal combustion engines are not the only challenge to hybrids. A VW Passat powered by natural gas was recently rated Europe's most environmentally friendly vehicle; its combination of a clean-burning spark-ignition engine and low-pollution natural gas scored the same as the latest Prius.

Hydrogen fuel-cell technology is another key area of development.

10 PERCENT BY 2014

Holloway said: "Green cars are not just about hybrids: there's also gas power, clean diesel and down-sized petrol engines."

Even if hybrid car sales do take off, it will be decades before they reach anything like the mainstream. Their sales, in the whole scale of the vehicle market, are infinitesimal - less than five percent of the Japanese market, three percent in the US and less than two percent in Europe.

Even the most optimistic forecasts predict a global new-vehicle market share of only about 10 percent by 2014 but new car sales themselves account for only a small proportion of the total - about two million a year in the UK out of the 30-million on the roads.

Industry analyst Mike Steventon: "It's fine for hybrids to take the floor at shows such as Geneva but they're still only a minor part of the auto market.

"They will need a long time to become a significant part of new sales or, more important, to make a real dent in the total car pool."

Ferrari 599 GTB Fiorano

It is rare for petrolheads to drool over a hybrid but the Ferrari 599 has them doing just that. It has a 75kW electric motor alongside its conventional six-litre V12 so its emissions come in a third lower than the petrol version.

More important, the hybrid 599 can reach an eye-watering 320km/h and accelerate from 0-100 in 3.5sec but it would set you back £400 000 (R4.5-million) if it were for sale (which it isn't) and is likely to cost £300 000 (R3.4-million) when it launches in 2014/15.

Opel Flextreme GT/E

Opel is already on track to launch its plug-in Ampera in early 2012 but it is already old news after Tuesday's display of its successor, the Flextreme GT/E. The five-door coupe is made of aluminium and composites to keep the weight down and has a beefed-up version of the Ampera's range-extender technology which uses a petrol engine to run a generator to charge the battery during a long drive.

Its range is about 65km on battery but the extender gives it up to 480km. The Flextreme has a top speed of about 300km/h and goes from 0-100 in nine seconds.

Honda 3R-C personal mobility vehicle

This is more motorcycle than car but, as a vision of the "electric personal mobility vehicle", it is as wacky as they come. It was created by the Japanese giant's research and design facility in Italy as a three-wheeled, battery-powered single-seater with the city of the future in mind.

It has a lockable "boot" at the front and handlebar steering. The plastic canopy folds over when the 3R-C is parked and is a windshield when in motion. It is sharing Honda's stand in Geneva with the US-X electric unicycle and the hydrogen fuel-cell FCX Clarity.

Toyota Auris HSD

The Toyota Auris may be less rare than the supercars from Porsche and Ferrari but it far more likely to be seen on the roads. The hybrid Auris on show in Geneva will be on sale from July 2010.

It uses much the same technology as the market-leading Prius - a 1.8-litre, 72kW engine supplemented by an electric motor powered by a bank of nickel-metal hydride batteries.

The result is a combined 100kW, acceleration from 0-100 in about 10sec and emissions below 100g/km. There are solar panels on the roof to help the battery charge and one on the fascia for cellphones and iPods.

Porsche 918 Spyder

The automotive blogosphere was in raptures after the surprise unveiling of Porsche's 918 Spyder hybrid concept on Tuesday. It has a 3.4-litre V8 that revs to 9200rpm and produces more than 370kW and three electric motors deliver 160kW.

It can accelerate to 100km/h in 3.2sec and on to nearly 320km/h - a genuine supercar that can be charged in your home garage. Porsche says it burns only 3.6 litres/100km and, in hybrid mode, emits a super-green 70g/km of CO2. - The Independent, London

What you you think? Are hybrids or clean diesels the future or will they remain merely a niche market for the foreseeable future. Let your imagination run wild in our comments section!